CHICAGOCHC
88-71 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 1:05 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
85-74 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
65°F · 15mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Clay Holmes
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.25
IP
97.0
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS5.26 ERA · 20.7% K · 13.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
19%
15%
9%
SinkerSweeperChangeupCurveballCutter
Alec Gamboa
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.16
IP
31.0
K/9
6.4
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.06
L5 STARTS2.09 ERA · 19% K · 14.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
54%
4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC BOS

Game Markets

CHC @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

40%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore CHC by 0.35 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.83, BOS 5.18
  • David Peterson (CHC) vs Brayan Bello (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DP

David Peterson

CHC SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

68%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

77%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against BOS
BB

Brayan Bello

BOS SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

78%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

69%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CLAY HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.476
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.634
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.737K%21.6%

ALEC GAMBOA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.475
vs Left-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.806
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%21.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs CLAY HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs ALEC GAMBOA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 0·BOS 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 0·BOS 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%CHC
CHC 14 · BOS 14 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-07-20BOS 6-1
2025-07-19CHC 6-0 · Blowout
2025-07-18CHC 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

BOS OFFENSE

.281L15 team wOBA
-35 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT65° · 15mph in from CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
65°F
Wind15 mph in from CF
Humidity50%
Rain1%

Wind in from CF · HR headwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO