BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
78-81 · +4 AL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
@FRI 4:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
92-67 · +2 AL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
72°F · 17mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Trevor Rogers
LHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.07
IP
165.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.18
L5 STARTS3.90 ERA · 31% K · 2.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
23%
12%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSinkerCutter
Brendan Beck
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
8.22
IP
7.2
K/9
5.9
BB/9
5.9
WHIP
1.57
L5 STARTS8.75 ERA · 14.7% K · 14.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
34%
4-Seam FastballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL NYY

Game Markets

BAL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

27%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

55%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore NYY by 1.04 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 5.35, NYY 4.30
  • Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Brendan Beck (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TR

Trevor Rogers

BAL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

67%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against NYY
BB

Brendan Beck

NYY SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

26%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TREVOR ROGERS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.756
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.528
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%24.7%

BRENDAN BECK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%11.1%OPS-against.120
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.913
BAL vs LHP (team)OPS.701K%26.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs TREVOR ROGERS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs BRENDAN BECK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·NYY 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 4·NYY 10
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%NYY
BAL 155 · NYY 195 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-20NYY 6-1
2026-08-19NYY 5-3
2026-08-18NYY 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

NYY OFFENSE

.320L15 team wOBA
+4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT72° · 17mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind17 mph out to RF
Humidity35%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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