AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDATL vs MIA
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Friday, September 25, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the ATL @ MIA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIA wins F5
event 1 / 81 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMiami wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDATL Over 3.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 25-for-66 (.379) with 4 HR vs. this starter, career · pitcher-friendly park
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
ATL STARTER
Ray Kerr
GOOD- 3.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 110
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
MIA STARTER
Eury Pérez
AVERAGE- 5.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 104
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Eury Pérez grades avg (Pitching+ 104) vs Ray Kerr grades good (Pitching+ 110)
ATL LINEUP
1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 70% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 64% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 63% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Harris II (L)hit 68% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 62% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
6Ozzie Albies (S)hit 52% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Riley (R)hit 51% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
9Sean Murphy (R)hit 43% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
MIA LINEUP
1Otto Lopez (R)hit 66% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Jakob Marsee (L)hit 54% · HR 6%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
3Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 60% · HR 19%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
4Javier Sanoja (R)hit 63% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
5Griffin Conine (L)hit 59% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
6Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 54% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
7Deyvison De Los Santos (R)hit 46% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
8Joe Mack (L)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
48%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
9Jared Serna (R)hit 46% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
20%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.