TEXASTEX
79-80 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@2026-09-24MIN HOME PARK
75-84 · +3 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
63°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TEX MIN

Game Markets

TEX @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

28%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

28%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore MIN by 0.50 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 3.80, MIN 3.30
  • Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs Joe Ryan (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

21%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

26%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

16%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 84% to reach 5+ against MIN
JR

Joe Ryan

MIN SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against TEX

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIN vs LHP (team)OPS.678K%22.3%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.691K%22.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TEX BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TEX 0·MIN 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TEX 0·MIN 3
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%MIN
TEX 50 · MIN 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-18MIN 9-3 · Blowout
2026-06-17MIN 12-2 · Blowout
2026-06-16MIN 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TEX52¢ · 52%
MIN52¢ · 52%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TEX -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TEX OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIN OFFENSE

.274L15 team wOBA
-42 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT63° · 7mph out to LF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
63°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity73%
Rain38%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RANGERS 54%

Mean score sim 3.8–3.3 · projected total 7.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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