TAMPA BAYTB
96-63 · +1 AL EAST · L2 · 6-4 L10
@2026-09-24PHI HOME PARK
87-72 · +2 NL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
63°F · 4mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB PHI

Game Markets

TB @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

40%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore TB by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 3.27, PHI 3.92
  • Freddy Peralta (TB) vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against PHI
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

94%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

43%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

97%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
  • 94% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.707K%21.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TB vs RHP (team)OPS.749K%19.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 0·PHI 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TB 2·PHI 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%TB
TB 35 · PHI 35 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-23TB 7-0 · Blowout
2026-03-19PHI 8-2 · Blowout
2026-03-03TB 3-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TB43¢ · 43%
PHI62¢ · 62%
Total 6.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
TB -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PHI OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT63° · 4mph in from CF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
63°F
Wind4 mph in from CF
Humidity57%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PHILLIES 59%

Mean score sim 3.3–3.9 · projected total 7.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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