BETFLYAISIGN IN
TAMPA BAYTB
96-62 · +1 AL EAST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@THU 7:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
91-67 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
63°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ian Seymour
LHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.38
IP
127.1
K/9
11.0
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS5.34 ERA · 28.3% K · 3.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
25%
24%
14%
ChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerSlider
Cam Schlittler
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+111
ERA
1.94
IP
190.2
K/9
11.1
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
0.91
L5 STARTS0.84 ERA · 34.2% K · 8.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
27%
20%
4-Seam FastballCutterSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Cam Schlittler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

-113 FanDuel53% book72% +19pp

Ian Seymour · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-105 Fanatics51% book66% +15pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB NYY

Game Markets

TB @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

38%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

31%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore TB by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 3.54, NYY 3.96
  • Ian Seymour (TB) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
IS

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

37%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.7 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against NYY
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

40%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.9 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

IAN SEYMOUR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.5%OPS-against.700
vs Left-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.817
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%24.8%

CAM SCHLITTLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.6%OPS-against.512
vs Left-handedK%34.4%OPS-against.563
TB vs LHP (team)OPS.680K%17.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs IAN SEYMOUR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs CAM SCHLITTLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 1·NYY 2
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
TB 7·NYY 8
15 played · 4 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%NYY
TB 166 · NYY 170 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23NYY 9-2 · Blowout
2026-09-22TB 6-1
2026-09-22NYY 2-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TB44¢ · 44%
NYY60¢ · 60%
Total 6.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
TB -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT6.5→7.5→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.321L15 team wOBA
+5 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT63° · 8mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
63°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity51%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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