BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
77-81 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
@THU 12:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
80-78 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
60°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Leahy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.65
IP
138.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS7.11 ERA · 25.4% K · 8.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
16%
16%
13%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeupSweeper
Paul Skenes
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.91
IP
168.0
K/9
10.3
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.13
L5 STARTS3.82 ERA · 18.1% K · 5.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
16%
16%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL PIT

Game Markets

STL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

37%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore STL by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.09, PIT 4.36
  • Kyle Leahy (STL) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

18%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE LEAHY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.8%OPS-against.618
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.850
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.752K%23.3%

PAUL SKENES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.9%OPS-against.663
vs Left-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.683
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.688K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs KYLE LEAHY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs PAUL SKENES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 1·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 8·PIT 6
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
STL 165 · PIT 126 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23STL 5-1
2026-09-22PIT 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-30PIT 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL42¢ · 42%
PIT62¢ · 62%
Total 7
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→7.5→6.5→10.5→6.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT60° · 9mph in from CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
60°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity54%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO