BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
73-85 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 4-6 L10
@THU 2:35 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
78-80 · +2 AL WEST · L3 · 6-4 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
91°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zac Thornton
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.40
IP
79.1
K/9
6.7
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS4.03 ERA · 19.5% K · 2.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
Cutter
Kumar Rocker
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
4.47
IP
143.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.42
L5 STARTS4.65 ERA · 25.3% K · 11.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
31%
14%
12%
SliderSinkerCutter4-Seam FastballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM TEX

Game Markets

NYM @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

43%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore NYM by 0.76 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.59, TEX 5.36
  • Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against TEX
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZAC THORNTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.3%OPS-against.762
vs Left-handedK%17.0%OPS-against.624
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.691K%22.5%

KUMAR ROCKER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.672
vs Left-handedK%20.7%OPS-against.825
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.681K%22.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs ZAC THORNTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs KUMAR ROCKER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 2·TEX 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 2·TEX 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%NYM
NYM 15 · TEX 11 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-24NYM 7-2
2026-09-23NYM 6-3
2025-09-14NYM 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM48¢ · 48%
TEX56¢ · 56%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.328L15 team wOBA
+12 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT91° · 5mph out to LF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity44%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO