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HOUSTONHOU
78-80 · +1 AL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
@THU 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
63-95 · +4 AL WEST · W2 · 3-7 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Peter Lambert
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
3.70
IP
151.0
K/9
8.8
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS3.93 ERA · 21.6% K · 7.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSliderCutterSinkerSweeper
Mason Barnett
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
7.16
IP
44.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
5.7
WHIP
1.75
L5 STARTS10.76 ERA · 19% K · 15% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
25%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU ATH

Game Markets

HOU @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

27%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATH by 1.06 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.81, ATH 3.76
  • Peter Lambert (HOU) vs Mason Barnett (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against ATH
MB

Mason Barnett

ATH SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

32%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PETER LAMBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.697
vs Left-handedK%21.8%OPS-against.612
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.722K%21.5%

MASON BARNETT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.925
vs Left-handedK%14.8%OPS-against.915
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs PETER LAMBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs MASON BARNETT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 0·ATH 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
HOU 4·ATH 5
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
91%HOU
HOU 128 · ATH 13 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-23ATH 7-6 · One-run game
2026-08-22ATH 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-22HOU 4-0
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ATH OFFENSE

.279L15 team wOBA
-37 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO