BETFLYAISIGN IN
CLEVELANDCLE
82-76 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 7-3 L10
@THU 6:45 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
85-73 · +3 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
58°F · 12mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Daniel Espino
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.73
IP
13.1
K/9
14.8
BB/9
4.7
WHIP
1.43
L5 STARTS7.06 ERA · 28% K · 12% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
66%
4-Seam Fastball
Ranger Suarez
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.27
IP
143.1
K/9
8.5
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS2.76 ERA · 17.5% K · 9.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
24%
22%
21%
17%
14%
Sinker4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballChangeupSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE BOS

Game Markets

CLE @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

23%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

25%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore BOS by 1.27 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.39, BOS 3.12
  • Daniel Espino (CLE) vs Ranger Suarez (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DE

Daniel Espino

CLE SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

57%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

18%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.0 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against BOS
RS

Ranger Suarez

BOS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

64%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DANIEL ESPINO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%38.7%OPS-against.998
vs Left-handedK%35.7%OPS-against.453
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.744K%21.5%

RANGER SUAREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.605
vs Left-handedK%23.8%OPS-against.731
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.700K%20.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs DANIEL ESPINO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs RANGER SUAREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·BOS 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 2·BOS 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%BOS
CLE 57 · BOS 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23BOS 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-22CLE 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-31BOS 9-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE46¢ · 46%
BOS58¢ · 58%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
BOS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT6.5→4.5→5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

BOS OFFENSE

.288L15 team wOBA
-28 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT58° · 12mph in from CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
58°F
Wind12 mph in from CF
Humidity58%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO