BETFLYAISIGN IN
CINCINNATICIN
73-85 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@THU 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
93-65 · +1 NL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
68°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brady Singer
RHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
5.67
IP
154.0
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.56
L5 STARTS11.78 ERA · 14.5% K · 13.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
30%
12%
SinkerSliderSweeperCutter
Tyler Mahle
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.81
IP
144.0
K/9
8.3
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS1.19 ERA · 21% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
26%
14%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerCutterSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tyler Mahle · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

contact lineup limits the K ceiling

+106 FanDuel49% book65% +16pp

Brady Singer · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-135 Bovada57% book66% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CIN ATL

Game Markets

CIN @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

43%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

54%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore CIN by 0.76 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 4.43, ATL 5.19
  • Brady Singer (CIN) vs Tyler Mahle (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BS

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against ATL
TM

Tyler Mahle

ATL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against CIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRADY SINGER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.2%OPS-against.752
vs Left-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.909
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%21.8%

TYLER MAHLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.6%OPS-against.848
vs Left-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.700
CIN vs RHP (team)OPS.690K%25.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs BRADY SINGER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CIN BATTERS vs TYLER MAHLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CIN 1·ATL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CIN 2·ATL 3
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%ATL
CIN 49 · ATL 61 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23ATL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-09-22CIN 4-0
2026-05-31CIN 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CIN36¢ · 36%
ATL68¢ · 68%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
CIN -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→6.5→7.5→5.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CIN OFFENSE

.257L15 team wOBA
-59 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

ATL OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 7mph in from CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity67%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO