WASHINGTONWSH
74-84 · +4 NL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
@WED 1:10 PM ETDET HOME PARK
74-84 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
DETROITDET
Weather
67°F · 16mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Richard Lovelady
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.86
IP
32.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
5.8
WHIP
1.84
L5 STARTS11.25 ERA · 18.8% K · 0% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
43%
30%
22%
SweeperSinker4-Seam Fastball
Framber Valdez
LHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.06
IP
168.2
K/9
6.9
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS2.70 ERA · 14.6% K · 8.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
20%
SinkerCurveballChangeupSlider
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTigers 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH DET

Game Markets

WSH @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

DET -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore WSH by 0.49 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.63, DET 5.12
  • Richard Lovelady (WSH) vs Framber Valdez (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RL

Richard Lovelady

WSH SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against DET
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

RICHARD LOVELADY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%16.4%OPS-against.808
vs Left-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.935
DET vs LHP (team)OPS.705K%23.3%

FRAMBER VALDEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.2%OPS-against.702
vs Left-handedK%25.1%OPS-against.720
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.776K%23.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

DET BATTERS vs RICHARD LOVELADY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs FRAMBER VALDEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 1·DET 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 1·DET 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%DET
WSH 29 · DET 30 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-22WSH 3-1
2026-09-21DET 9-2 · Blowout
2025-07-03WSH 11-7 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH40¢ · 40%
DET64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5 ·
DET +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.588.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

DET OFFENSE

.351L15 team wOBA
+35 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
ENVIRONMENT67° · 16mph out to RF
COMERICA PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.97 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Deep LC/RC. Suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
67°F
Wind16 mph out to RF
Humidity58%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO