BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
77-80 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 1:35 PM ETBAL HOME PARK
76-81 · +5 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
BALTIMOREBAL
Weather
58°F · 4mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Mark Wegner K-0.7%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Max Scherzer
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
6.07
IP
72.2
K/9
6.7
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS3.97 ERA · 19.5% K · 9.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
23%
16%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Chris Bassitt
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.64
IP
97.0
K/9
6.7
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.55
L5 STARTS3.88 ERA · 20.2% K · 8.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
23%
22%
SinkerCurveballCutterSweeper4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 57%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TOR BAL

Game Markets

TOR @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

39%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore TOR by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.70, BAL 4.15
  • Max Scherzer (TOR) vs Chris Bassitt (BAL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against BAL
CB

Chris Bassitt

BAL SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against TOR
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
NL

Nathan Lukes

TOR · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
SK

Sean Keys

TOR · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JS

Josh Smith

TOR · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
BV

Brandon Valenzuela

TOR · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
MS

Myles Straw

TOR · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chris Bassitt
JJ

Jeremiah Jackson

BAL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
CN

Carlos Narváez

BAL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MAX SCHERZER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.584
vs Left-handedK%12.3%OPS-against.851
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%24.1%

CHRIS BASSITT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.4%OPS-against.677
vs Left-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.853
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%18.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BAL BATTERS vs MAX SCHERZER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs CHRIS BASSITT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·BAL 2
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
TOR 7·BAL 7
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%TOR
TOR 190 · BAL 156 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-22BAL 0-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-21BAL 4-3 · One-run game
2026-09-13TOR 8-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR48¢ · 48%
BAL56¢ · 56%
Total 7
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
BAL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→8.5→7.5→8.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

BAL OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT58° · 4mph in from CF
CAMDEN YARDS
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor0.99 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
58°F
Wind4 mph in from CF
Humidity83%
Rain1%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
WEGNER
Called K rate-0.7% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr302

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ORIOLES 57%

Mean score sim 3.7–4.2 · projected total 7.8 runs · built on locked lineups

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