MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ian Seymour · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TB @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
30%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore NYY by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.
TB SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
89%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
34%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
60%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
NYY SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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