BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
76-81 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
80-77 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W5 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
62°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Matthew Liberatore
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.36
IP
149.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.49
L5 STARTS7.31 ERA · 20.7% K · 9.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
17%
15%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinkerCutter
Lake Bachar
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.56
IP
83.1
K/9
9.4
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS2.47 ERA · 27% K · 13.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
18%
13%
11%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperCurveballSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL PIT

Game Markets

STL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

34%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.98 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.54, PIT 4.44
  • Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against PIT
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MATTHEW LIBERATORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.824
vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.810
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.753K%23.3%

LAKE BACHAR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.703
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.711K%19.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs MATTHEW LIBERATORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs LAKE BACHAR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 7·PIT 6
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
STL 164 · PIT 126 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-22PIT 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-30PIT 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-29PIT 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL51¢ · 51%
PIT53¢ · 53%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→7.5→7→7.5→7→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.281L15 team wOBA
-35 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT62° · 9mph in from CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
62°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity70%
Rain3%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO