MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Robbie Ray · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SD @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
47%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore SD by 1.25 runs across 5,000 trials.
SD SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
61%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
LAD SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
87%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly, low BABIP.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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