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NEW YORKNYM
72-85 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 8:05 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
78-79 · +2 AL WEST · L2 · 6-4 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
94°F · 9mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Nolan McLean
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.18
IP
172.2
K/9
9.8
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS2.40 ERA · 21.1% K · 11.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
19%
17%
13%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballCutterChangeup
Cody Bradford
LHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
4.19
IP
38.2
K/9
4.7
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.50
L5 STARTS5.22 ERA · 9.6% K · 5.8% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Nolan McLean · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter

-120 Fanatics55% book65% +10pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM TEX

Game Markets

NYM @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

30%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore TEX by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.06, TEX 4.43
  • Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Cody Bradford (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against TEX
CB

Cody Bradford

TEX SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
  • 9% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NOLAN MCLEAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.6%OPS-against.515
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.730
TEX vs LHP (team)OPS.762K%24.0%

CODY BRADFORD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.0%OPS-against.751
vs Left-handedK%6.5%OPS-against.919
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs NOLAN MCLEAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs CODY BRADFORD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·TEX 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 1·TEX 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%NYM
NYM 14 · TEX 11 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23NYM 6-3
2025-09-14NYM 5-2
2025-09-13TEX 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM52¢ · 52%
TEX52¢ · 52%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.329L15 team wOBA
+13 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.303L15 team wOBA
-13 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT94° · 9mph out to LF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
94°F
Wind9 mph out to LF
Humidity38%
Rain7%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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