Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Connor Prielipp · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
ace-tier — manager extends the leash
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIN @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
36%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
SF -1.5
28%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
32%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore SF by 0.74 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIN SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
SF SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine air kills carry to RCF.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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