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MILWAUKEEMIL
98-59 · +1 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 7-3 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
87-70 · +2 NL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
64°F · 14mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.51
IP
93.1
K/9
10.3
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
0.81
L5 STARTS2.10 ERA · 29.4% K · 3.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Aaron Nola
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
4.49
IP
168.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS1.74 ERA · 19% K · 9.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
21%
13%
Curveball4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Aaron Nola · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+115 Bovada47% book54% +7pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL PHI

Game Markets

MIL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

26%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

26%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PHI by 0.80 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.01, PHI 3.21
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

13%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against PHI
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.5%OPS-against.560
vs Left-handedK%31.3%OPS-against.578
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.708K%21.8%

AARON NOLA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.8%OPS-against.808
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.782
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%22.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs AARON NOLA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 0·PHI 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIL 2·PHI 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%PHI
MIL 50 · PHI 53 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-22PHI 6-4
2026-06-14MIL 4-0
2026-06-13PHI 9-8 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL59¢ · 59%
PHI45¢ · 45%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→7.5→7→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

PHI OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT64° · 14mph out to LF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
64°F
Wind14 mph out to LF
Humidity57%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO