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HOUSTONHOU
78-79 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
@WED 10:10 PM ETSEA HOME PARK
73-84 · +3 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
SEATTLESEA
Weather
55°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ethan Pecko
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.77
IP
28.2
K/9
6.0
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS3.81 ERA · 15.3% K · 9.2% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

George Kirby
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.24
IP
169.2
K/9
7.6
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.39
L5 STARTS4.74 ERA · 19.8% K · 8.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
21%
10%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

HOU SEA

Game Markets

HOU @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

37%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

36%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.04 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: HOU 3.92, SEA 4.13
  • Ethan Pecko (HOU) vs George Kirby (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EP

Ethan Pecko

HOU SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against SEA
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

64%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against HOU

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ETHAN PECKO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.487
vs Left-handedK%12.3%OPS-against.791
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%22.7%

GEORGE KIRBY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.9%OPS-against.736
vs Left-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.810
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.729K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SEA BATTERS vs ETHAN PECKO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

HOU BATTERS vs GEORGE KIRBY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
HOU 1·SEA 0
2-game set · gm 2 of 2
2026 SEASON
HOU 3·SEA 9
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%HOU
HOU 132 · SEA 103 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23HOU 7-0 · Blowout
2026-08-16SEA 3-2 · One-run game
2026-08-15SEA 10-5 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
HOU45¢ · 45%
SEA60¢ · 60%
Total 8.5
Over49¢ · 49%
Under56¢ · 56%
Run line ±1.5
HOU -1.5— · —
SEA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→7.5→7→9.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

HOU OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SEA OFFENSE

.302L15 team wOBA
-14 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT55° · 6mph out to LF
T-MOBILE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Notorious pitcher park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
55°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity61%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO