MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Seth Lugo · Over 14.5 15+ Outs
starter going deep into a manageable lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CWS @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
57%
Run Line
KC -1.5
32%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
CWS projects to outscore KC by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.
CWS SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
70%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
KC SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Big OF — triples up, HR down.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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