BETFLYAISIGN IN
CLEVELANDCLE
82-75 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W6 · 8-2 L10
@WED 7:10 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
84-73 · +3 AL EAST · L3 · 4-6 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
56°F · 12mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Foster Griffin
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.67
IP
166.2
K/9
8.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS6.92 ERA · 19.2% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
17%
15%
11%
10%
10%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballChangeupSinkerSplit-Finger
Sonny Gray
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
2.82
IP
163.0
K/9
8.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS3.59 ERA · 23.2% K · 8.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
19%
18%
17%
CutterSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE BOS

Game Markets

CLE @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

31%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore BOS by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.40, BOS 3.96
  • Foster Griffin (CLE) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against BOS
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

FOSTER GRIFFIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.690
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.590
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%21.7%

SONNY GRAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.686
vs Left-handedK%24.0%OPS-against.665
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.673K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs FOSTER GRIFFIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs SONNY GRAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·BOS 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 2·BOS 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%BOS
CLE 57 · BOS 59 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-22CLE 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-31BOS 9-4
2026-05-30BOS 9-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE47¢ · 47%
BOS57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
BOS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT6.5→6→7.5→7→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.321L15 team wOBA
+5 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

BOS OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT56° · 12mph in from CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
56°F
Wind12 mph in from CF
Humidity62%
Rain0%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO