ARIZONAARI
@2026-09-23COL HOME PARK
57-100 · +5 NL WEST · L2 · 2-8 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
68°F · 6mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ARI COL

Game Markets

ARI @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ARI to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

79%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

79%

Run Line

COL -1.5

35%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

68%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

66%

THE READ

ARI projects to outscore COL by 0.47 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ARI 6.77, COL 6.30
  • Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Mason Adams (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MK

Merrill Kelly

ARI SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against COL
MA

Mason Adams

COL SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

2%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against ARI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

COL vs LHP (team)OPS.708K%24.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.688K%20.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·COL 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·COL 6
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%COL
ARI 0 · COL 167 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23AZ 7-2
2026-08-12COL 6-4
2026-08-12COL 3-2 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI62¢ · 62%
COL43¢ · 43%
Total 11
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5 ·
COL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT1110.511.51110.51111.511last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.334L15 team wOBA
+18 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

COL OFFENSE

.306L15 team wOBA
-10 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT68° · 6mph in from CF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind6 mph in from CF
Humidity59%
Rain13%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 51%

Mean score sim 6.86.3 · projected total 13.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read