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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

STL vs PIT

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

STL DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.7
FB95.3
CV78.6
FB94.1
SL84

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

57%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 79 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT

STL STARTER

Andre Pallante

AVERAGE
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 34% · 15% whiffSlider · 29% · 31% whiffCurveball · 17% · 30% whiff

PIT STARTER

Jared Jones

GOOD
6.3
PROJECTED Ks
108
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 22% whiffSlider · 35% · 42% whiffChangeup · 11% · 40% whiff

Jared Jones grades good (Pitching+ 108) vs Andre Pallante grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

AP

Andre Pallante

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against PIT
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 77% to reach 5+ against STL

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.