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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

SD vs LAD

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CV78
FB92.9
FB93.3
FB94.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

65%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

San Diego wins

65%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

SD STARTER

Robbie Ray

SHAKY
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
86
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 20% whiffSlider · 23% · 35% whiffChangeup · 19% · 25% whiff

LAD STARTER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

GOOD
6.5
PROJECTED Ks
110
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Split-Finger · 27% · 34% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 29% whiffCutter · 15% · 24% whiff

Yoshinobu Yamamoto grades good (Pitching+ 110) vs Robbie Ray grades poor (Pitching+ 86)

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dustin Harris (L)hit 59% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 58% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 63% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 60% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Austin Hays (R)hit 54% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 51% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luis Campusano (R)hit 51% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 48% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 67% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Freddie Freeman (L)hit 69% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Will Smith (R)hit 68% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Max Muncy (L)hit 59% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Kyle Tucker (L)hit 59% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 66% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Josue De Paula (L)hit 57% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Andy Pageshit 62% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tommy Edman (S)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD LAD

Game Markets

SD @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

47%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore SD by 1.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.67, LAD 4.97
  • Robbie Ray (SD) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against LAD
YY

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

18%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

87%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
  • 81% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.