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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

NYM vs TEX

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYM @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYM
0·0
TEXASTEX
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

NYM DUGOUTTEX DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Francisco Lindor (L) vs HP

FB93.9
SL82.9
FB94

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Francisco Lindor in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · FRANCISCO LINDOR

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

58%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYFrancisco Lindor at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

New York M wins

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGETEX

NYM STARTER

Sean Manaea

AVERAGE
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 38% · 22% whiffSweeper · 31% · 31% whiffSinker · 19% · 7% whiff

TEX STARTER

MacKenzie Gore

AVERAGE
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 22% whiffCurveball · 18% · 29% whiffChangeup · 13% · 37% whiff

MacKenzie Gore grades avg (Pitching+ 98) vs Sean Manaea grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 62% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 70% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Mark Vientos (R)hit 59% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Carson Benge (L)hit 62% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semien (R)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 53% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8A.J. Ewing (L)hit 53% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Luis Torrens (R)hit 54% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Wyatt Langford (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 69% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Josh Jung (R)hit 70% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jake Burger (R)hit 67% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 68% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 62% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Justin Foscue (R)hit 64% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Elias Díaz (R)hit 55% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Danny Jansen (R)hit 47% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

SM

Sean Manaea

NYM SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against TEX
MG

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

16%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against NYM

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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