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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

MIL vs PHI

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB95.8
FB92.9
SL85.8
FB95.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

56%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 72 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI

MIL STARTER

Dustin May

GOOD
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 25% · 22% whiffCutter · 24% · 25% whiffSinker · 20% · 17% whiff

PHI STARTER

Zack Wheeler

GOOD
8.1
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 30% whiffSinker · 16% · 11% whiffSplit-Finger · 16% · 45% whiff

Zack Wheeler grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Dustin May grades good (Pitching+ 106)

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

DM

Dustin May

MIL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

34%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

22%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against PHI
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

42%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against MIL

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.