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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

MIA vs CHC

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

SL84.8
FB95.7
FB93
CV77.9
FB92.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

56%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Chicago C wins

44%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIA

MIA STARTER

Janson Junk

GOOD
2.3
PROJECTED Ks
109
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 34% · 11% whiffSlider · 20% · 17% whiffChangeup · 18% · 23% whiff

CHC STARTER

Shota Imanaga

AVERAGE
6.0
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 21% whiffSplit-Finger · 34% · 41% whiffSweeper · 15% · 29% whiff

Shota Imanaga grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Janson Junk grades good (Pitching+ 109)

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.