BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

CWS vs KC

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CWS @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCWS
0·0
KANSAS CITYKC
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CWS DUGOUTKC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CT89.3
FB93.7
FB96
FB95.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

KC to win

56%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

KC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL KC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

KC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 81 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECWS
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

CWS STARTER

Erick Fedde

AVERAGE
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 38% · 23% whiffSinker · 31% · 12% whiffCutter · 19% · 15% whiff

KC STARTER

Seth Lugo

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 19% · 13% whiffCurveball · 17% · 24% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 16% · 15% whiff

Watch out: Sinker, 4-Seam Fastball are getting hit hard lately.

Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Erick Fedde grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

CWS LINEUP

  1. 1Miguel Vargas (R)hit 71% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Tommy Pham (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Randal Grichuk (R)hit 75% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 59% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Chase Meidroth (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Teel (L)hit 58% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brenton Doyle (R)hit 59% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colson Montgomery (L)hit 58% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Braden Montgomery (S)hit 52% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Carter Jensen (L)hit 66% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 74% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 72% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Maikel Garcia (R)hit 66% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 65% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Salvador Perez (R)hit 66% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Michael Massey (L)hit 63% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nick Loftin (R)hit 56% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Kyle Isbel (L)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CWS KC

Game Markets

CWS @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

KC to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

66%

Run Line

KC -1.5

40%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

56%

THE READ

KC projects to outscore CWS by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CWS 5.03, KC 5.44
  • Erick Fedde (CWS) vs Seth Lugo (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EF

Erick Fedde

CWS SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against KC
SL

Seth Lugo

KC SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against CWS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.