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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

CLE vs BOS

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
BOSTONBOS
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTBOS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CH83.8
FB95.5
CH83.9
CH83.4

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

54%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS

CLE STARTER

Parker Messick

AVERAGE
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 27% whiffChangeup · 23% · 36% whiffSinker · 15% · 10% whiff

BOS STARTER

Payton Tolle

GOOD
6.7
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 45% · 30% whiffSinker · 24% · 18% whiffCutter · 19% · 28% whiff

Payton Tolle grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Parker Messick grades avg (Pitching+ 105)

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against BOS
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against CLE

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.