MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Drake Baldwin · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
reaches base often, gets pushed across
Ozzie Albies · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Williamson
Ozzie Albies · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
72%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
64%
Game Total
Over 8.5
44%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
53%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
25%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
52%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore CIN by 2.02 runs across 5,000 trials.
CIN SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
32%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ATL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
93%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
46%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly, especially to LF.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.1–5.2 · projected total 8.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
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