MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Trey Yesavage · Over 2.5 3+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Shane Baz · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Shane Baz · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
97 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 12
TOR @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
31%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore BAL by 0.42 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
27%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
27%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
16%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
BAL SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
23%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
BAL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.
BAL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 56%.
BAL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
43%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 43% against 56%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.3–3.9 · projected total 8.2 runs · partial lineups — will refresh
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