MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Blade Tidwell · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Zebby Matthews · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIN @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
SF -1.5
33%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore SF by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIN SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
SF SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine air kills carry to RCF.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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