BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
76-79 · +4 AL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 2:35 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
78-77 · +1 AL WEST · W2 · 6-4 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
97°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Spencer Miles
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
2.65
IP
91.2
K/9
8.5
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS0.00 ERA · 29.4% K · 8.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
40%
26%
18%
16%
SinkerCurveballSlider4-Seam Fastball
Jacob deGrom
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.79
IP
154.1
K/9
11.3
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS3.97 ERA · 35.6% K · 6.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
36%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR TEX

Game Markets

TOR @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

37%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

37%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

TEX projects to outscore TOR by 0.36 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.56, TEX 3.92
  • Spencer Miles (TOR) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SM

Spencer Miles

TOR SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against TEX
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

26%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

16%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPENCER MILES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.0%OPS-against.453
vs Left-handedK%23.2%OPS-against.666
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%22.5%

JACOB DEGROM SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.650
vs Left-handedK%31.8%OPS-against.617
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs SPENCER MILES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs JACOB DEGROM

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·TEX 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 0·TEX 6
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%TOR
TOR 68 · TEX 52 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19TEX 6-2
2026-09-19TEX 7-1 · Blowout
2026-06-28TEX 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR16¢ · 16%
TEX91¢ · 91%
Total 6.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→6.5→6→6.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

TEX OFFENSE

.318L15 team wOBA
+2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT97° · 10mph out to RF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
97°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity38%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO