BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN FRANCISCOSF
64-92 · +4 NL WEST · L3 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 4:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
96-60 · +1 NL WEST · W4 · 7-3 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Brennan Miller K-0.1%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-3 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Matt Wilkinson
LHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.65
IP
24.2
K/9
6.6
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
1.01
L5 STARTS2.84 ERA · 21.6% K · 5.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Jack Dreyer
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.28
IP
60.1
K/9
10.3
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS7.20 ERA · 12% K · 12% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
39%
13%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS6 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

Under 5.5 (F5) · f5_total

under edge from the run-rate model in F5

— Kalshi62% book74% +12pp

Under 4.5 (F5) · f5_total

under edge from the run-rate model in F5

-110 FanDuel52% book60% +8pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Scott Bandura · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot bat vs Dreyer

+290 BetMGM26% book52% +27pp

Andrew Knizner · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

+225 BetMGM31% book52% +21pp

Brett Harris · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

+230 DraftKings30% book50% +20pp

Matt Wilkinson · Over 2.5 3+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+109 DraftKings48% book65% +18pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 68%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF LAD

Game Markets

SF @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

68%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

29%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

47%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

19%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore SF by 1.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 2.66, LAD 4.10
  • Matt Wilkinson (SF) vs Jack Dreyer (LAD)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MW

Matt Wilkinson

SF SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 13% to reach 5+ against LAD
JD

Jack Dreyer

LAD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

51%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.7 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against SF
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
VB

Victor Bericoto

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
EH

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 9% against 8% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
JP

Josue De Paula

LAD · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
HF

Hunter Feduccia

LAD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Matt Wilkinson
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
SB

Scott Bandura

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 57%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 21% against 24%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

47%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 11%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
BH

Brett Harris

SF · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
GM

Grant McCray

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

43%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 11%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jack Dreyer
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MATT WILKINSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.775
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.393
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.756K%20.1%

JACK DREYER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%34.1%OPS-against.649
vs Left-handedK%20.2%OPS-against.613
SF vs LHP (team)OPS.669K%23.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs MATT WILKINSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs JACK DREYER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 0·LAD 3
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 5·LAD 7
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%LAD
SF 156 · LAD 170 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-20LAD 3-1
2026-09-20LAD 10-4 · Blowout
2026-09-19LAD 8-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF3¢ · 3%
LAD99¢ · 99%
Total 4.5
Over14¢ · 14%
Under93¢ · 93%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

LAD OFFENSE

.364L15 team wOBA
+48 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
MILLER
Called K rate-0.1% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr145

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DODGERS 68%

Mean score sim 2.7–4.1 · projected total 6.8 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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