BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
85-70 · +2 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 1:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
71-84 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 4-6 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
68°F · 9mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Cristopher Sánchez
LHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+118
ERA
2.93
IP
193.2
K/9
10.0
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS5.18 ERA · 21.2% K · 4.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
39%
19%
SinkerChangeupSlider
Jonah Tong
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.43
IP
21.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS3.55 ERA · 22% K · 9.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
4-Seam FastballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI NYM

Game Markets

PHI @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

31%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

23%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore NYM by 1.24 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.37, NYM 3.13
  • Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs Jonah Tong (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

98%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against NYM
JT

Jonah Tong

NYM SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%35.6%OPS-against.378
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.711K%22.1%

JONAH TONG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.556
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.640
PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs JONAH TONG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 1·NYM 2
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
PHI 6·NYM 6
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%NYM
PHI 134 · NYM 166 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19NYM 10-3 · Blowout
2026-09-18NYM 6-3
2026-09-17PHI 3-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI63¢ · 63%
NYM41¢ · 41%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
NYM +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYM OFFENSE

.333L15 team wOBA
+17 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 9mph out to LF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind9 mph out to LF
Humidity88%
Rain49%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO