BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
97-58 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 8-2 L10
@SUN 7:20 PM ETBAL HOME PARK
75-80 · +5 AL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
BALTIMOREBAL
Weather
81°F · 5mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob Misiorowski
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+126
ERA
1.89
IP
166.1
K/9
13.2
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
0.81
L5 STARTS2.66 ERA · 30.3% K · 10.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
63%
14%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballSlider
Brandon Young
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.65
IP
145.2
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS4.40 ERA · 18% K · 10.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
41%
20%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 64%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL BAL

Game Markets

MIL @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

23%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

37%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

19%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

20%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore BAL by 1.62 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.43, BAL 2.81
  • Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs Brandon Young (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

53%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.7 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against BAL
BY

Brandon Young

BAL SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACOB MISIOROWSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%29.9%OPS-against.587
vs Left-handedK%44.9%OPS-against.391
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%24.1%

BRANDON YOUNG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.777
vs Left-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.721
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.762K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BAL BATTERS vs JACOB MISIOROWSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs BRANDON YOUNG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 2·BAL 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIL 2·BAL 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
75%MIL
MIL 15 · BAL 5 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19MIL 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-09-18MIL 6-5 · One-run game
2025-05-21BAL 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL67¢ · 67%
BAL36¢ · 36%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
BAL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

BAL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 5mph out to CF
CAMDEN YARDS
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor0.99 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind5 mph out to CF
Humidity59%
Rain29%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO