BETFLYAISIGN IN
MIAMIMIA
76-79 · +3 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@SUN 4:10 PM ETSD HOME PARK
86-69 · +2 NL WEST · W4 · 9-1 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
75°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sandy Alcantara
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.84
IP
206.0
K/9
6.5
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS7.74 ERA · 11.5% K · 8.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
22%
19%
14%
8%
SinkerChangeup4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSliderCurveball
Walker Buehler
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
4.58
IP
143.1
K/9
7.7
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS3.63 ERA · 19.8% K · 5.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
23%
21%
17%
11%
11%
9%
Cutter4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSliderChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA SD

Game Markets

MIA @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

SD -1.5

37%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.74 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.29, SD 4.44
  • Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Walker Buehler (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against SD
WB

Walker Buehler

SD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SANDY ALCANTARA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.9%OPS-against.617
vs Left-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.741
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%21.5%

WALKER BUEHLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.704
vs Left-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.792
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs SANDY ALCANTARA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs WALKER BUEHLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·SD 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 0·SD 5
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
61%SD
MIA 40 · SD 62 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-20SD 7-6 · One-run game
2026-09-19SD 8-2 · Blowout
2026-07-26SD 5-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA46¢ · 46%
SD58¢ · 58%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.324L15 team wOBA
+8 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

SD OFFENSE

.364L15 team wOBA
+48 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 7mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity67%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO