BETFLYAISIGN IN
KANSAS CITYKC
67-88 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 1:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
78-77 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
75°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Wacha
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.34
IP
188.2
K/9
7.1
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS2.18 ERA · 22.7% K · 6.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
23%
16%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterSinkerCurveballSlider
Lake Bachar
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.50
IP
82.1
K/9
9.4
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS2.14 ERA · 28.2% K · 12.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
18%
13%
11%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperCurveballSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC PIT

Game Markets

KC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

37%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.77 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.28, PIT 4.50
  • Michael Wacha (KC) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

82%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against PIT
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL WACHA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.8%OPS-against.797
vs Left-handedK%21.0%OPS-against.609
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.754K%23.4%

LAKE BACHAR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.703
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.722K%20.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs MICHAEL WACHA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs LAKE BACHAR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·PIT 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 0·PIT 2
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%PIT
KC 13 · PIT 14 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19PIT 6-5 · One-run game
2026-09-18PIT 8-5
2025-07-09KC 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC54¢ · 54%
PIT50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8→9.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 6mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity81%
Rain28%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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