MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Davis Martin · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Davis Martin · Over 14.5 15+ Outs
elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
DET @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
54%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
28%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore CWS by 0.89 runs across 5,000 trials.
DET SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
CWS SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
33%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
83% rain chance — game may be delayed.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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