MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sal Stewart · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
middle-order + runners-on profile
Tyler Stephenson · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
lineup spot does the work — RBIs come
Elly De La Cruz · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
OBP edge + ballpark + lineup
Elly De La Cruz · Over 0.5 1+ HR
barrel rate spike vs vulnerable RHP
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
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CHC @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
75%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
76%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
36%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
64%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore CIN by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.
CHC SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
63%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
66%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
CIN SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
37%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CIN · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 39% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CIN · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 34% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
CHC · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
CIN · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
CIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 16% against 19%.
CIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
League’s hottest HR park.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 6.4–6.0 · projected total 12.4 runs · built on locked lineups
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