Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Patrick Sandoval · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Patrick Sandoval · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Griffin Jax · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BOS @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
TB -1.5
40%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore BOS by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.
BOS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
49%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
TB SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
6%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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