BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
91-64 · +1 NL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@SUN 2:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
77-78 · +2 AL WEST · L2 · 3-7 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
91°F · 2mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Martín Pérez
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+87
ERA
3.07
IP
137.2
K/9
6.5
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS2.83 ERA · 14.2% K · 12.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
30%
23%
8%
SinkerChangeupCutterCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Hunter Brown
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.43
IP
97.0
K/9
10.2
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS2.96 ERA · 33% K · 7.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
20%
9%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL HOU

Game Markets

ATL @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

44%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore ATL by 1.05 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 3.62, HOU 4.67
  • Martín Pérez (ATL) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

32%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against HOU
HB

Hunter Brown

HOU SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MARTÍN PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.1%OPS-against.644
vs Left-handedK%20.5%OPS-against.704
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.728K%22.1%

HUNTER BROWN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.657
vs Left-handedK%30.7%OPS-against.655
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.694K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs MARTÍN PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs HUNTER BROWN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 2·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATL 2·HOU 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%ATL
ATL 47 · HOU 41 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19ATL 6-3
2026-09-19ATL 6-2
2025-09-14ATL 8-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL46¢ · 46%
HOU58¢ · 58%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→6.5→8→6.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

HOU OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT91° · 2mph in from CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind2 mph in from CF
Humidity57%
Rain1%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO