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ATH
61-94 · +4 AL WEST · L5 · 3-7 L10
@SUN 1:40 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
80-75 · +1 AL CENTRAL · W4 · 7-3 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
68°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jack Perkins
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
6.14
IP
110.0
K/9
10.4
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS3.35 ERA · 26.4% K · 13.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
31%
17%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeupCutterSinker
Gavin Williams
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
3.78
IP
174.0
K/9
12.2
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS4.07 ERA · 41.7% K · 10.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
23%
22%
20%
10%
SweeperCurveball4-Seam FastballSinkerCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH CLE

Game Markets

ATH @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

42%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

26%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore ATH by 0.89 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 3.15, CLE 4.04
  • Jack Perkins (ATH) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JP

Jack Perkins

ATH SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

17%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

37%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

27%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACK PERKINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.784
vs Left-handedK%27.6%OPS-against.830
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%20.7%

GAVIN WILLIAMS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.9%OPS-against.757
vs Left-handedK%34.9%OPS-against.602
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.719K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs JACK PERKINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs GAVIN WILLIAMS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 0·CLE 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
ATH 1·CLE 6
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
95%CLE
ATH 4 · CLE 72 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19CLE 12-6 · Blowout
2026-09-18CLE 5-3
2026-05-03ATH 7-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CLE OFFENSE

.329L15 team wOBA
+13 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 7mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity85%
Rain18%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO