MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Andrew Alvarez · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Michael McGreevy · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
WSH @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
WSH to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
STL -1.5
32%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
45%
THE READ
WSH projects to outscore STL by 0.51 runs across 5,000 trials.
WSH SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
56%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
STL SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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