AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGSF vs LAD
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, September 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 76 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Los Angeles D wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
SF STARTER
Yunior Marte
SHAKY- 3.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 85
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
LAD STARTER
Tarik Skubal
ELITE- 8.4
- PROJECTED Ks
- 121
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Tarik Skubal grades elite (Pitching+ 121) vs Yunior Marte grades poor (Pitching+ 85)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
SF @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
69%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
62%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
52%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
25%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore SF by 1.70 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SF 3.06, LAD 4.77
- Yunior Marte (SF) vs Tarik Skubal (LAD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Yunior Marte
SF SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
64%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 24% to reach 5+ against LAD
Tarik Skubal
LAD SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
89%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
47%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
81%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
- 96% to reach 5+ against SF
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.