MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Christian Scott · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Andrew Painter · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Andrew Painter · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
long-leash spot vs softer opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYM to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
37%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
37%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.05 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
PHI SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
NYM SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
37%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
33%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep OF, dead air.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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