BETFLYAISIGN IN
MIAMIMIA
76-78 · +3 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 8:40 PM ETSD HOME PARK
85-69 · +2 NL WEST · W3 · 9-1 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
73°F · 8mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Eury Pérez
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+116
ERA
3.99
IP
144.1
K/9
9.7
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS8.49 ERA · 20.4% K · 13.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
15%
15%
10%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperChangeupSinkerCurveball
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.69
IP
124.1
K/9
7.8
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS6.31 ERA · 11.8% K · 5.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA SD

Game Markets

MIA @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

41%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

SD -1.5

33%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

37%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.00 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.04, SD 3.96
  • Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Casey Mize (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

30%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

19%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 60% to reach 5+ against SD
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

EURY PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.764
vs Left-handedK%29.0%OPS-against.635
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.719K%21.5%

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.741K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs EURY PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·SD 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 0·SD 4
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%SD
MIA 40 · SD 61 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-19SD 8-2 · Blowout
2026-07-26SD 5-3
2026-07-25SD 7-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA44¢ · 44%
SD60¢ · 60%
Total 5.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→4.5→5.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

SD OFFENSE

.358L15 team wOBA
+42 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT73° · 8mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind8 mph out to RF
Humidity69%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO