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KANSAS CITYKC
67-87 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
@SAT 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
77-77 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
73°F · 6mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Noah Cameron
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.84
IP
166.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS2.25 ERA · 20.5% K · 8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
21%
20%
17%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterCurveballSliderSinker
Bubba Chandler
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.28
IP
147.1
K/9
8.1
BB/9
4.6
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS4.62 ERA · 22.2% K · 10.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
18%
17%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerSweeperCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRoyals 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC PIT

Game Markets

KC @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

KC to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

31%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

KC projects to outscore PIT by 0.67 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 4.95, PIT 4.28
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Bubba Chandler (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against PIT
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NOAH CAMERON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.648
vs Left-handedK%21.5%OPS-against.751
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.754K%23.4%

BUBBA CHANDLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.603
vs Left-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.755
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.694K%22.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs NOAH CAMERON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs BUBBA CHANDLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 0·PIT 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%KC
KC 13 · PIT 13 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-18PIT 8-5
2025-07-09KC 4-3 · One-run game
2025-07-08KC 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC50¢ · 50%
PIT53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→9.5→8→7.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.318L15 team wOBA
+2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT73° · 6mph in from CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
73°F
Wind6 mph in from CF
Humidity71%
Rain4%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO