MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Nick Lodolo · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CHC @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
48%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
69%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
69%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
36%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
58%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
58%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 11.27 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
CHC SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
70%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
70%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
CIN SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
46%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
League’s hottest HR park.
Wind in from CF · HR headwind.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
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